The Plumbing and Heating Federation has criticised the Climate Change Committee’s latest 2040 heat pump targets as “completely detached from reality,” warning that without a trained workforce to install them, these targets amount to little more than empty ambitions.

The country’s climate advisors, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), has released its seventh carbon budget, outlining what it sees as a new pathway to a decarbonised UK by 2050.

The report reviews what decisions the CCC thinks need to be made in the coming years to ensure success. It models that the country must reduce emissions by 87% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2040 – and shows how this could be feasible, and, much more cheaply than originally expected.

Electrification is presented as a key measure to achieve net zero targets that could make up 60% of emissions reductions by 2040. This includes decarbonising the grid and replacing fossil-fuelled cars and heating systems with electric alternatives (EVs and heat pumps), with a target of having heat pumps installed in half of UK homes by 2050.  

However the Plumbing and Heating Federation sees such target as unrealistic due to the lack of installers to do the work.

Fiona Hodgson, the Federation's Chief Executive, said: “Heat pump adoption cannot be driven by wishful thinking. The CCC, and successive Westminster and devolved governments keep setting ambitious targets while ignoring the fundamental issue: there simply are not enough trained professionals to install them.

“Without serious investment in skills training and workforce expansion, the UK will fail to meet its heat pump targets. All governments need to stop offloading responsibility onto businesses and take action to ensure we have the people to deliver this transition.”

The CCC’s recommendations follow newly obtained Freedom of Information data from Home Energy Scotland (HES), highlighting the scale of the challenge. Since 2019, fewer than 9,000 heat pumps have been installed under the HES Grant and Loan Scheme and the Private Rented Sector Landlord Loan Scheme in Scotland, nowhere near the number needed to meet the CCC’s targets.

To stand any chance of success, heat pump installations would need to increase by 200-fold; a target that is impossible to achieve under current workforce constraints. In the eyes of the Federation, policymakers continue to overlook the severe shortage of qualified installers, placing the burden on businesses instead of providing meaningful support.

In its reaction to the CCC report, the Plumbing and Heating Federation also emphasises the urgent need to address the Spark Gap – the imbalance between electricity and gas prices – which remains one of the most significant barriers to heat pump uptake. If electricity stays significantly more expensive than gas, homeowners simply will not make the switch, regardless of policy encouragement.

Hodgson continued: “We are in a perverse situation where government policy tells people to transition to electric heating, yet energy pricing actively discourages them from doing so. The public will not be persuaded to switch to a more expensive heating system in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. Without serious reform to energy pricing, the transition to low-carbon heating will remain a pipe dream.”

Stuart Gizzi, CEO of Intatec, is broadly in agreement with the P&H Federation's position, and calls for policy certainty. He explained: "The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) latest report highlights a concerning reality: the UK is lagging in its transition to sustainable home heating. Without urgent government intervention, the nation's targets risk becoming unattainable.

"The report identifies several obstacles to scaling up heat pump installations, with policy uncertainty being paramount. It is imperative that the government commits to a clear and consistent strategy.

"Prolonged policy fluctuations and ambiguous directives have deterred business investments, left installers uncertain about their career trajectories, and confused homeowners about their choices.

"The CCC rightly advocates for decisive action. Business thrives on stability; however, current recommendations may be rendered obsolete with shifting policies. The National Audit Office (NAO) has identified policy ambiguity as a significant factor hindering the adoption of heat pumps.

"Without a definitive governmental roadmap, the industry's capacity to meet its objectives remains compromised."

The Heat Pump Association reports that, as of 2023, approximately 4,543 full-time equivalent (FTE) heat pump engineers are active in the UK. And, like the P&H Federation, Gizzi sees the shortage of qualified installers as "a critical challenge".

To achieve the government's goal of 600,000 installations annually by 2028, this workforce must expand significantly. Projections indicate that at least 41,000 engineers will be required by 2030, escalating to over 122,000 by 2035. This necessitates training a minimum of 4,500 new installers each year. 

Gizzi continued: "Installers face considerable challenges in upskilling. Training programmes are costly, reduce billable hours, and come at a time when employment expenses are escalating. Many small enterprises and independent installers are hesitant to invest in new competencies amidst uncertain governmental support for heat pumps.

"Moreover, while increasing the number of heat pump specialists is vital, it is equally important to preserve traditional skills essential for system maintenance, balancing, and hybrid solutions.

"Without clear legislative frameworks and incentives, installers remain apprehensive about retraining, and businesses are reluctant to allocate resources to training initiatives. For large-scale heat pump adoption, governmental clarity is urgently needed.

"I urge policymakers to cease delays, establish a definitive strategy, and adhere to it. This will empower businesses to invest confidently and provide installers with assurance of stable career prospects."

But Gizzi also placed some responsibility for effective change onto the heating industry, saying: "Installers should proactively seek upskilling opportunities and invest in apprenticeships, ensuring the coexistence of both traditional and emerging heating technologies in the UK market."

He concluded: "The CCC’s report serves as a critical alert. Achieving our net-zero objectives demands unwavering governmental commitment and a workforce strategy conducive to practical implementation. Without these, the UK risks continued regression."