CPA forecasts 10% growth over the next two years

Published:  04 August, 2014

The construction industry will grow by 10% over the next two years, according to the Construction Products Association's (CPA) summer forecast, released today. This, the CPA said, will add nearly £11 bn to the overall UK economy.

The forecast predicts that construction output will grow 4.7% this year and 4.8% in 2015, while the total construction output will rise 22.2% over the next five years.

Meanwhile, private housing starts are expected to grow 18% in 2014 and 10% in 2015, with commercial offices output growing 10% this year and 8% in 2015.

Dr Noble Francis, economics director of the Association, said: "The Forecasts reflect the increasing strength of the sector, though risks remain. We anticipate the recovery will continue through the forecast horizon in 2018 and broaden both across sectors and regions. Overall levels of activity will likely match their 2007 peak in 2017.

"In the short-term, the activity will primarily be led by private housing, infrastructure and commercial. Notably, in the long-term, we expect this activity will be boosted by work on schools and hospitals."

Dr Francis said the pending general election may cast the future of housing policies into doubt, with questions abour affordability and higher mortgage repayments subduing private housing growth to 5% per year from 2016.

He added: "Commercial, the largest sector, has a greater influence than housing on the overall outlook for the construction industry and should contribute 23.4% growth over the forecast horizon to 2018. The offices sub-sector is the primary driver in commercial, and recovery in the sector has been dominated so far by growth in London. Activity in regional markets is starting to pick up, however. During the last 18 months, increased demand and rising rents have been reported in key regional markets such as Manchester, Edinburgh and Birmingham which should feed through to new offices construction from 2015."

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